Facts and figures on German agriculture compiled by the Deutsche Bauernverband

World food supply

The world's population is growing substantially

The current population is around 6.3 billion, which means that the number of people has more than doubled since 1960. According to current estimates by the United Nations (UN), the world's population will swell to 8.9 billion by 2050. This is 2.6 billion more people than today. While the population in Asia and Africa is exploding, it's growing more moderately in other regions, and in Europe it's actually declining.

Food and wealth are unevenly distributed around the world

Food production has more than doubled in the past 40 years, which means that it has grown more quickly than the population. Nonetheless, the number of malnourished people around the globe has hardly decreased. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN, around 800 million people (12% of the world's population) - including around 180 million children - are currently going hungry. Each day, 24,000 people die as a result of malnutrition; three-quarters of these people are children under the age of 5. More than 2 billion people are lacking certain nutrients, which has grave consequences for their health and mental development.

The UN estimates that 95 percent of future population growth will take place in the developing countries. In the year 2025, the proportion of the world's population living in currently developing countries will have risen from 80 percent to around 85 percent.

The current world food situation is a study in contrasts

In the last 30 years, as the world population has doubled, the per-capita provision of calories has risen by 15 percent. From a purely mathematical point of view, there is currently enough food to sufficiently feed the entire population of the earth: 2,700 kilocalories (kcal) of food energy per day are available for each person. But the table has not been set fairly. While an American has an average of 3,600 kcal available per day and a European has 3,500 kcal, the Africans south of the Sahara have only 2,100 kcal per capita, and the developing countries in general have an average of 2,500 kcal per person per day. Africa in particular is likely to remain problematic in the future.

Secure ownership and usage rights are important prerequisites for a strong economy

According to a UN report, economic growth and human development must form a single unit, as they mutually influence and reinforce one another.

The report calls for secure ownership and usage rights for land and water, suitable investment and credit programs, efficient consulting services, basic social care, gender equality, and an appropriate education and population policy. The UN says that the ability of developing countries to carry out public duties themselves must be strengthened. This includes maintaining law and order, enforcing ownership rights, promoting and ensuring competition in private-sector markets, and opening up to international markets.

Agricultural growth contributes to an overall improvement in the quality of life in rural regions and to the strengthening of local and regional economic cycles. An important key to fighting starvation around the world involves helping people help themselves.

Productive land is becoming scarce

Of the 13.4 billion hectares of land on the earth's surface, 1.5 billion hectares are used for agriculture, and another 3.5 billion are used as grazing and pasture land. It is becoming more difficult to expand agricultural production because natural resources like soil and water are becoming scarce. Each year, around 7.1 million hectares of agriculturally productive land and 9.4 million hectares of woodland are lost to development, erosion or inappropriate use. For a sense of scale: Germany has 17 million hectares of agriculturally productive land.

Ecologically important woodlands are shrinking as well

Wooded areas and steppe currently take up only 3.9 billion hectares of land. Over half of this (52 percent) is tropical forest. It is estimated that these forests are shrinking by around 15 million hectares a year. The majority of tropical rain forest clearing – around 90 percent – takes place for agricultural purposes. The damage that results from this includes soil erosion, flooding, prolonged dry seasons, a decrease in biodiversity, and global climate change. According to the FAO, the most significant reason for the ongoing disappearance of the forests is illegal logging due to corruption and poverty, and a shortage of cultivatable land.

Declining soil quality leads to smaller crops

In many regions of the world, it is becoming difficult to increase productivity due to the declining quality of the soil. A recent study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) showed that 40 percent of the world's agriculturally productive land has already been so badly damaged by erosion, salinization and desertification that the long-term productive capacity of the land is threatened. The study concludes that the goal of being able to feed the entire population in the future is in serious jeopardy. The FAO estimates that the demand for additional food will have grown by 60 percent between 2003 and 2030.

The growing world population has less and less space available to it

As the world's population grows, the available land per inhabitant is shrinking rapidly. In 1950, there were an average of 0.51 hectares of farmland per capita available worldwide. In the year 2000, there were only 0.27 hectares, and by 2020 there will probably only be 0.18 hectares per capita.

If a secure food supply is to be guaranteed as the world's population grows, then agricultural land must be used more intensively, while long-term soil fertility is maintained at the same time. The FAO estimates that 80 percent of the additional production which will be necessary in the coming decades must come from higher yields, as there is a limit on the expansion of agriculturally productive land.

If water is scarce, food will be scarce

In addition to the loss of agriculturally productive land, the availability of water - a crucial element for life - has also become a pressing issue. The earth's supply of water amounts to around 1.1 billion cubic kilometers. 97.5 percent of this water is found in the oceans, and only 2.5 percent is fresh water. Around 69 percent of this fresh water is not accessible to humans, as it is locked up in ice. 31 percent of the available fresh water can be found in surface water and ground water reserves. According to the FAO, 70 percent of the water consumed by people on earth is used for irrigation in farming; the remaining 30 percent goes towards industry and the drinking water and domestic water needs of the population.

Projections by the renowned IFPRI show that, as the population increases, the demand for water will grow by at least 50 percent by 2025. If changes are not made in how water is used, it is feared that there could be a considerable decline in grain production worldwide. Water-saving and drought-resistant types of grain could make an important contribution to securing the world's food supply.

Growth in productivity must increase

According to the FAO, the increase in agricultural production in the last 40 years is due 78 percent to an increase in performance, 15 percent to an increase in the amount of cultivated land, and 7 percent to shorter fallow periods. For the period until 2015, the FAO foresees a growth rate in the demand for food of around 2 percent. After this period, the growth rate should weaken somewhat due to slower population growth and a certain degree of market saturation. It remains to be seen whether this demand can be met. With grain, for example, which covers 60 percent of the total provision of calories in the developing countries, the growth in productivity has slowed considerably in the past decades. While the hectare yield for grain rose 1.6 percent annually worldwide between 1982 and 1997, the IFPRI estimates that between 1997 and 2020, it will only increase by 1.0 percent annually. In light of this, the acceleration and use of scientific and technological advancements is extremely important.

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